Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
